By Kalpna Singh-Chitnis
Don’t get me wrong, I’m sharing this insight after closely observing the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war for over 500 days, as well as the careful maneuvers of Western allies in support of Ukraine.
If I were Ukraine’s President, after seeing the outcome of the NATO 2023 Summit in Vilnius, I would be open to the option of making a peace treaty with Russia rather than relying solely on the support of Western allies to win the war and ensure enduring peace by fulfilling Ukraine’s dream of NATO membership in the long run.
However, this pact would insist on two conditions. Firstly, Russia must return every inch of Ukrainian land it has occupied since Ukraine gained independence following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, and secondly, promise not to attack Ukraine’s sovereignty ever again. While it is true that Russia has previously failed to honor its commitments to Ukraine, leading to a general lack of trust between the two nations, it is crucial to ask ourselves what are other ways to achieve peace? No war can be fought indefinitely. We also know, there is no guarantee that Ukraine’s allies will continue to provide long-term funding for the armed conflict. Ukraine will inevitably have to confront the bitter reality and consider alternatives to end this war.
It’s important to recognize that all who stand with us are not necessarily doing so out of camaraderie. Often, they are motivated by their own fears or interests.
In return, I would assure Russia that Ukraine will not join NATO, which is Russia’s biggest fear. It does not seem likely anyway that Ukraine’s accession to NATO will be possible in the near future, at least until the war ends — a prospect that remains doubtful since the conflict has continued unabated, with or without direct military engagement since 2014. There are several other conditions that have to be met by Ukraine, such as democratic reforms, curbing corruption, and reforming its security institutions to achieve its NATO dream, that are highly unlikely to be achieved in a short period of time.
Why would Russia be interested in such a pact with Ukraine? This question begets another: What other options does Russia have, after realizing it can neither defeat Ukraine nor coerce it to abandon its aspiration to join NATO? Recent internal unrest within Russia (especially after the Yevgeny Prigozhin’s dramatic rebellion against Putin), and its heavy losses in Ukraine demonstrates that it cannot sustain this war indefinitely and may resort to drastic, desperate measures if pragmatic solutions aren’t found and negotiations don’t commence soon.
Why should Ukraine be open to have such a pact with Russia? The answer is straightforward — isn’t this precisely what Ukraine aims to accomplish in this conflict? The desire to reclaim its lost territories and guarantee of a long enduring peace? So, why not pursue such an opportunity?
A war is not won merely by territorial gains or inflicting more casualties upon the enemy. Rather, victory lies in the wisdom of discerning whether the very purpose of the war is truly being served. If Russia refuses to return the occupied territories of Ukraine and end the war, it is only strengthening NATO’s presence in the region, thereby defeating the very purpose of its invasion of Ukraine.
Would Russia and Ukraine’s allies welcome these peace negotiations? The answer is likely yes, as the war in Ukraine has impacted the entire world. Economies of nations have declined, and we are teetering on the brink of a third world war, potentially even a nuclear one. It is in the interest of all nations to come together and find a peaceful solution to end this war. Such initiatives will also help curb the enthusiasm of any country under dictatorial regimes from attacking the sovereignty of other nations.
Furthermore, considering the results of the 2023 NATO summit, and the uncertain outcome of the 2024 General Election in America, we must not ignore the fact that there is a potential for the reduction or complete withdrawal of defense support to Ukraine if the Republicans come into power. It is important to note that America’s level of involvement in Ukraine’s war can also influence the engagement of Western allies who currently stand in solidarity with Ukraine. Recent hints from France and Germany suggest that they are feeling the pressure from Russia and China, and this delicate equation may quickly shift. As a result, it becomes crucial for Ukrainians to recognize that pursuing a path of self-reliance and seeking a peace treaty could be the optimal approach for minimizing further bloodshed and fostering political and economic stability in the country.
A war is not won merely by territorial gains or inflicting more casualties upon the enemy. Rather, victory lies in the wisdom of discerning whether the very purpose of the war is truly being served.
There is no doubt that, after the Vilnius summit, Ukraine has gained more support from NATO members in terms of what is needed to win the war and weaken Russia. So, the goal of “weakening Russia” appears to be prioritized over “strengthening Ukraine” under the NATO umbrella.
I don’t mean to paint a bleak picture, but it’s important to recognize that all who stand with us are not necessarily doing so out of camaraderie. Often, they are motivated by their own fears or interests.
Yes, Ukraine, now you’ll get cluster bombs from us and your generations will bear the brunt. Generations in Vietnam have suffered, and are still suffering, as land mines continue to explode in their fields. Very soon, we may cease supplying you with ammunition, tanks, and the wings of freedom. And if you insist, we would be happy to sell you all the weapons and supplies that you need, at a cost. And one day, we will leave, just like we left Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and you will be left alone to defend yourself.
Ukraine, you have proven yourself to be a nation of resilient people, a strong military, and great potential. Use these assets as leverage, as a country like India does. It has consistently adhered to its non-aligned foreign policy in times of both war and peace. Your resolute stance will garner significant attention from your allies and command the greater respect. Forge friendships and alliances that will not dissipate once their immediate interests have been served. Seek their assistance in bringing Putin to the negotiation table. “Stand tall, like “Uncle Anatoly,” on your robust legs — the strength of the Caucasus is in your muscles. Cut through the thickets with your wisdom, and remind your allies that friendship should be as thick and sweet as buckwheat honey, and as dense as the beard of the god, and freedom should be unconditional, uncompromising and everlasting.“*
Inspired by a Ukrainian poem*
